Towards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling

DC FieldValueLanguage
dc.contributor.authorDressler, Gunnar
dc.contributor.authorMueller, Birgit
dc.contributor.authorFrank, Karin
dc.contributor.authorKuhlicke, Christian
dc.date.accessioned2021-12-23T16:12:15Z-
dc.date.available2021-12-23T16:12:15Z-
dc.date.issued2016
dc.identifier.issn15618633
dc.identifier.urihttps://osnascholar.ub.uni-osnabrueck.de/handle/unios/10118-
dc.description.abstractEffective disaster management is a core feature for the protection of communities against natural disasters such as floods. Disaster management organizations (DMOs) are expected to contribute to ensuring this protection. However, what happens when their resources to cope with a flood are at stake or the intensity and frequency of the event exceeds their capacities? Many cities in the Free State of Saxony, Germany, were strongly hit by several floods in the last years and are additionally challenged by demographic change, with an ageing society and out-migration leading to population shrinkage in many parts of Saxony. Disaster management, which is mostly volunteer-based in Germany, is particularly affected by this change, leading to a loss of members. We propose an agent-based simulation model that acts as a ``virtual lab'' to explore the impact of various changes on disaster management performance. Using different scenarios we examine the impact of changes in personal resources of DMOs, their access to operation relevant information, flood characteristics as well as differences between geographic regions. A loss of DMOs and associated manpower caused by demographic change has the most profound impact on the performance. Especially in rural, upstream regions population decline in combination with very short lead times can put disaster management performance at risk.
dc.description.sponsorshipEuropean Commission through the project ``emBRACE - Building Resilience amongst Communities in Europe'' [283201]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research within the Junior Research Group POLISES [BMBF-01LN1315A]; Gunnar Dressler and Christian Kuhlicke acknowledge financial support by the European Commission through the project ``emBRACE - Building Resilience amongst Communities in Europe'' (contract number: 283201). Birgit Muller acknowledges support by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF-01LN1315A) within the Junior Research Group POLISES. We thank the participants of the stakeholder workshop held on 10 April 2014 for their fruitful input and comments on the model.
dc.language.isoen
dc.publisherCOPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
dc.relation.ispartofNATURAL HAZARDS AND EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES
dc.subjectEUROPE
dc.subjectEXPOSURE
dc.subjectFLOOD
dc.subjectGeology
dc.subjectGeosciences, Multidisciplinary
dc.subjectLOSSES
dc.subjectMeteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
dc.subjectRECOVERY
dc.subjectRESILIENCE
dc.subjectSYSTEMS
dc.subjectWater Resources
dc.titleTowards thresholds of disaster management performance under demographic change: exploring functional relationships using agent-based modeling
dc.typejournal article
dc.identifier.doi10.5194/nhess-16-2287-2016
dc.identifier.isiISI:000386759600001
dc.description.volume16
dc.description.issue10
dc.description.startpage2287
dc.description.endpage2301
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-2769-0692
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0002-1193-228X
dc.contributor.orcid0000-0001-8780-4420
dc.contributor.researcheridD-6490-2015
dc.contributor.researcheridO-8397-2016
dc.identifier.eissn16849981
dc.publisher.placeBAHNHOFSALLEE 1E, GOTTINGEN, 37081, GERMANY
dcterms.isPartOf.abbreviationNat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci.
dcterms.oaStatusGreen Submitted, gold
crisitem.author.deptInstitut für Umweltsystemforschung-
crisitem.author.deptidresearchcenter5-
crisitem.author.orcid0000-0002-2769-0692-
crisitem.author.parentorgUniversität Osnabrück-
crisitem.author.netidFrKa908-
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