Lessons for model use in transition research: A survey and comparison with other research areas

Autor(en): Halbe, J.
Reusser, D. E.
Holtz, G.
Haasnoot, M.
Stosius, A.
Avenhaus, W.
Kwakkel, H.
Stichwörter: CLIMATE-CHANGE; DECISION-MAKING; Environmental Sciences; Environmental Sciences & Ecology; Environmental Studies; FRAMEWORK; INNOVATION SYSTEMS; INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT; Model design; Model uses; Model validation; Modeling protocols; SCENARIOS; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS; SOCIETAL TRANSITIONS; SUSTAINABILITY; Transition modelinga; WATER MANAGEMENT
Erscheinungsdatum: 2015
Herausgeber: ELSEVIER
Band: 15
Startseite: 194
Seitenende: 210
The use of models to study the dynamics of transitions is challenging because of several aspects of transitions, notably complexity, multi-domain and multi-level interactions. These challenges are shared by other research areas that extensively make use of models. In this article we survey experiences and methodological approaches developed in the research areas of social-ecological modeling, integrated assessment, and environmental modeling, and derive lessons to be learnt for model use in transition studies. In order to account for specific challenges associated with different kinds of model applications we classify models according to their uses: for understanding transitions, for providing case specific policy advice, and for facilitating stakeholder processes. The assessment reveals promising research directions for transition modeling, such as model-to-model analysis, pattern-oriented modeling, advanced sensitivity analysis, development of a shared conceptual framework, and use of modeling protocols. (C) 2014 Elsevier B. V. All rights reserved.
ISSN: 22104224
DOI: 10.1016/j.eist.2014.10.001

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