Prospects of modelling societal transitions: Position paper of an emerging community

Abstract

Societal transitions involve multiple actors, changes in institutions, values and technologies, and interactions across multiple sectorsand scales. Given this complexity, this paper takes on the viewthat the societal transitions research field would benefit from thefurther maturation and broader uptake of modelling approaches. This paper shows how modelling can enhance the understandingof and support stakeholders to steer societal transitions. It discussesthe benefits modelling provides for studying large societal systemsand elaborates on different ways models can be used for transitions studies. Two model applications are presented in some detailto illustrate the benefits. Then, limitations of modelling societal transitions are discussed, which leads to an agenda for future activities: (1) better cooperation in the development of dynamic models, (2) stronger interaction with other transition scholars and stakeholders, and (3) use of additional modelling approaches that wethink are relevant to and largely unexplored in transitions studies. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.