Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale
DC Element | Wert | Sprache |
---|---|---|
dc.contributor.author | Bugmann, Harald | |
dc.contributor.author | Seidl, Rupert | |
dc.contributor.author | Hartig, Florian | |
dc.contributor.author | Bohn, Friedrich | |
dc.contributor.author | Bruna, Josef | |
dc.contributor.author | Cailleret, Maxime | |
dc.contributor.author | Francois, Louis | |
dc.contributor.author | Heinke, Jens | |
dc.contributor.author | Henrot, Alexandra-Jane | |
dc.contributor.author | Hickler, Thomas | |
dc.contributor.author | Huelsmann, Lisa | |
dc.contributor.author | Huth, Andreas | |
dc.contributor.author | Jacquemin, Ingrid | |
dc.contributor.author | Kollas, Chris | |
dc.contributor.author | Lasch-Born, Petra | |
dc.contributor.author | Lexer, Manfred J. | |
dc.contributor.author | Merganic, Jan | |
dc.contributor.author | Merganicova, Katarna | |
dc.contributor.author | Mette, Tobias | |
dc.contributor.author | Miranda, Brian R. | |
dc.contributor.author | Nadal-Sala, Daniel | |
dc.contributor.author | Rammer, Werner | |
dc.contributor.author | Rammig, Anja | |
dc.contributor.author | Reineking, Bjoern | |
dc.contributor.author | Roedig, Edna | |
dc.contributor.author | Sabate, Santi | |
dc.contributor.author | Steinkamp, Jorg | |
dc.contributor.author | Suckow, Felicitas | |
dc.contributor.author | Vacchiano, Giorgio | |
dc.contributor.author | Wild, Jan | |
dc.contributor.author | Xu, Chonggang | |
dc.contributor.author | Reyer, Christopher P. O. | |
dc.date.accessioned | 2021-12-23T16:24:15Z | - |
dc.date.available | 2021-12-23T16:24:15Z | - |
dc.date.issued | 2019 | |
dc.identifier.issn | 21508925 | |
dc.identifier.uri | https://osnascholar.ub.uni-osnabrueck.de/handle/unios/14825 | - |
dc.description.abstract | Models are pivotal for assessing future forest dynamics under the impacts of changing climate and management practices, incorporating representations of tree growth, mortality, and regeneration. Quantitative studies on the importance of mortality submodels are scarce. We evaluated 15 dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) regarding their sensitivity to different formulations of tree mortality under different degrees of climate change. The set of models comprised eight DVMs at the stand scale, three at the landscape scale, and four typically applied at the continental to global scale. Some incorporate empirically derived mortality models, and others are based on experimental data, whereas still others are based on theoretical reasoning. Each DVM was run with at least two alternative mortality submodels. Model behavior was evaluated against empirical time series data, and then, the models were subjected to different scenarios of climate change. Most DVMs matched empirical data quite well, irrespective of the mortality submodel that was used. However, mortality submodels that performed in a very similar manner against past data often led to sharply different trajectories of forest dynamics under future climate change. Most DVMs featured high sensitivity to the mortality submodel, with deviations of basal area and stem numbers on the order of 10-40% per century under current climate and 20-170% under climate change. The sensitivity of a given DVM to scenarios of climate change, however, was typically lower by a factor of two to three. We conclude that (1) mortality is one of the most uncertain processes when it comes to assessing forest response to climate change, and (2) more data and a better process understanding of tree mortality are needed to improve the robustness of simulated future forest dynamics. Our study highlights that comparing several alternative mortality formulations in DVMs provides valuable insights into the effects of process uncertainties on simulated future forest dynamics. | |
dc.description.sponsorship | COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology)European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST); Austrian Science Fund FWF (START Grant)Austrian Science Fund (FWF) [Y895-B25]; German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF)Federal Ministry of Education & Research (BMBF) [01LS1201A1]; German Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE) [2816ERA06S]; Czech Academy of SciencesCzech Academy of Sciences [RVO 67985939]; Ministry of Education, Youth and SportsMinistry of Education, Youth & Sports - Czech Republic [LD15158]; Slovak Research and Development AgencySlovak Research and Development Agency [APVV-0480-12]; European Forests under Climate Change), supported by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology). We thank Michaela Volekova for helping with the initial data analysis efforts. Tom Pugh (University of Birmingham) provided valuable comments on the design of the study and on the manuscript. R. Seidl acknowledges additional support from the Austrian Science Fund FWF (START Grant Y895-B25). C.P.O. Reyer acknowledges funding from the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A1) and the German Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE, grant no. 2816ERA06S). Josef Bruna and Jan Wild were funded by the longterm research and development project RVO 67985939 (The Czech Academy of Sciences) and acknowledge support from project no. LD15158 of the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports. This work was also supported by the Slovak Research and Development Agency under contract APVV-0480-12. We thank Nico Bircher, Marek Fabrika, Slavomir Strmen, Adriana Lestianska, Katarina Strelcova, and Carlos Gracia for contributing to the simulation results underlying this paper (see Appendix S1). | |
dc.language.iso | en | |
dc.publisher | WILEY | |
dc.relation.ispartof | ECOSPHERE | |
dc.subject | climate change impacts | |
dc.subject | CLIMATE-CHANGE | |
dc.subject | COMPLEX-SYSTEMS | |
dc.subject | DROUGHT | |
dc.subject | Ecology | |
dc.subject | ECOSYSTEM | |
dc.subject | Environmental Sciences & Ecology | |
dc.subject | forest dynamics | |
dc.subject | GAP MODELS | |
dc.subject | GROWTH | |
dc.subject | model comparison | |
dc.subject | mortality modeling | |
dc.subject | PRODUCTIVITY | |
dc.subject | succession | |
dc.subject | TERRESTRIAL CARBON-CYCLE | |
dc.subject | VARIABILITY | |
dc.subject | VEGETATION MODELS | |
dc.title | Tree mortality submodels drive simulated long-term forest dynamics: assessing 15 models from the stand to global scale | |
dc.type | journal article | |
dc.identifier.doi | 10.1002/ecs2.2616 | |
dc.identifier.isi | ISI:000461577000033 | |
dc.description.volume | 10 | |
dc.description.issue | 2 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0002-3338-3402 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0003-3007-4070 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0002-4839-4593 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0002-7861-8789 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0002-4668-7552 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0003-4252-2715 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0002-0935-6201 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0002-6255-9059 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0003-4233-0094 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0001-6561-1943 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0001-8100-0659 | |
dc.contributor.orcid | 0000-0003-1854-0761 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | ABE-6078-2020 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | G-2380-2010 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | A-6601-2010 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | G-5622-2010 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | S-6287-2016 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | B-6680-2017 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | AAC-2904-2020 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | G-4510-2010 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | C-4494-2008 | |
dc.contributor.researcherid | I-3395-2016 | |
dc.publisher.place | 111 RIVER ST, HOBOKEN 07030-5774, NJ USA | |
dcterms.isPartOf.abbreviation | Ecosphere | |
dcterms.oaStatus | Green Published, gold | |
crisitem.author.dept | Institut für Umweltsystemforschung | - |
crisitem.author.deptid | researchcenter5 | - |
crisitem.author.parentorg | Universität Osnabrück | - |
crisitem.author.netid | HuAn907 | - |
Seitenaufrufe
2
Letzte Woche
0
0
Letzter Monat
2
2
geprüft am 01.06.2024