Estimating the reproducibility of psychological science

Autor(en): Aarts, Alexander A.
Anderson, Joanna E.
Anderson, Christopher J.
Attridge, Peter R.
Attwood, Angela
Axt, Jordan
Babel, Molly
Bahnik, Stepan
Baranski, Erica
Barnett-Cowan, Michael
Bartmess, Elizabeth
Beer, Jennifer
Bell, Raoul
Bentley, Heather
Beyan, Leah
Binion, Grace
Borsboom, Denny
Bosch, Annick
Bosco, Frank A.
Bowman, Sara D.
Brandt, Mark J.
Braswell, Erin
Brohmer, Hilmar
Brown, Benjamin T.
Brown, Kristina
Bruening, Jovita
Calhoun-Sauls, Ann
Callahan, Shannon P.
Chagnon, Elizabeth
Chandler, Jesse
Chartier, Christopher R.
Cheung, Felix
Christopherson, Cody D.
Cillessen, Linda
Clay, Russ
Cleary, Hayley
Cloud, Mark D.
Cohn, Michael
Cohoon, Johanna
Columbus, Simon
Cordes, Andreas
Costantini, Giulio
Alvarez, Leslie D. Cramblet
Cremata, Ed
Crusius, Jan
DeCoster, Jamie
DeGaetano, Michelle A.
Della Penna, Nicolas
den Bezemer, Bobby
Deserno, Marie K.
Devitt, Olivia
Dewitte, Laura
Dobolyi, David G.
Dodson, Geneva T.
Donnellan, M. Brent
Donohue, Ryan
Dore, Rebecca A.
Dorrough, Angela
Dreber, Anna
Dugas, Michelle
Dunn, Elizabeth W.
Easey, Kayleigh
Eboigbe, Sylvia
Eggleston, Casey
Embley, Jo
Epskamp, Sacha
Errington, Timothy M.
Estel, Vivien
Farach, Frank J.
Feather, Jenelle
Fedor, Anna
Fernandez-Castilla, Belen
Fiedler, Susann
Field, James G.
Fitneva, Stanka A.
Flagan, Taru
Forest, Amanda L.
Forsell, Eskil
Foster, Joshua D.
Frank, Michael C.
Frazier, Rebecca S.
Fuchs, Heather
Gable, Philip
Galak, Jeff
Galliani, Elisa Maria
Gampa, Anup
Garcia, Sara
Gazarian, Douglas
Gilbert, Elizabeth
Giner-Sorolla, Roger
Gloeckner, Andreas
Goellner, Lars
Goh, Jin X.
Goldberg, Rebecca
Goodbourn, Patrick T.
Gordon-McKeon, Shauna
Gorges, Bryan
Gorges, Jessie
Goss, Justin
Graham, Jesse
Grange, James A.
Gray, Jeremy
Hartgerink, Chris
Hartshorne, Joshua
Hasselman, Fred
Hayes, Timothy
Heikensten, Emma
Henninger, Felix
Hodsoll, John
Holubar, Taylor
Hoogendoorn, Gea
Humphries, Denise J.
Hung, Cathy O. -Y.
Immelman, Nathali
Irsik, Vanessa C.
Jahn, Georg
Jaekel, Frank
Jekel, Marc
Johannesson, Magnus
Johnson, Larissa G.
Johnson, David J.
Johnson, Kate M.
Johnston, William J.
Jonas, Kai
Joy-Gaba, Jennifer A.
Kappes, Heather Barry
Kelso, Kim
Kidwell, Mallory C.
Kim, Seung Kyung
Kirkhart, Matthew
Kleinberg, Bennett
Knezevic, Goran
Kolorz, Franziska Maria
Kossakowski, Jolanda J.
Krause, Robert Wilhelm
Krijnen, Job
Kuhlmann, Tim
Kunkels, Yoram K.
Kyc, Megan M.
Lai, Calvin K.
Laique, Aamir
Lakens, Daniel
Lane, Kristin A.
Lassetter, Bethany
Lazarevic, Ljiljana B.
LeBel, Etienne P.
Lee, Key Jung
Lee, Minha
Lemm, Kristi
Levitan, Carmel A.
Lewis, Melissa
Lin, Lin
Lin, Stephanie
Lippold, Matthias
Loureiro, Darren
Luteijn, Ilse
Mackinnon, Sean
Mainard, Heather N.
Marigold, Denise C.
Martin, Daniel P.
Martinez, Tylar
Masicampo, E. J.
Matacotta, Josh
Mathur, Maya
May, Michael
Mechin, Nicole
Mehta, Pranjal
Meixner, Johannes
Melinger, Alissa
Miller, Jeremy K.
Miller, Mallorie
Moore, Katherine
Moeschl, Marcus
Motyl, Matt
Mueller, Stephanie M.
Munafo, Marcus
Neijenhuijs, Koen I.
Nervi, Taylor
Nicolas, Gandalf
Nilsonne, Gustav
Nosek, Brian A.
Nuijten, Michele B.
Olsson, Catherine
Osborne, Colleen
Ostkamp, Lutz
Pavel, Misha
Penton-Voak, Ian S.
Perna, Olivia
Pernet, Cyril
Perugini, Marco
Pipitone, R. Nathan
Pitts, Michael
Plessow, Franziska
Prenoveau, Jason M.
Rahal, Rima-Maria
Ratliff, Kate A.
Reinhard, David
Renkewitz, Frank
Ricker, Ashley A.
Rigney, Anastasia
Rivers, Andrew M.
Roebke, Mark
Rutchick, Abraham M.
Ryan, Robert S.
Sahin, Onur
Saide, Anondah
Sandstrom, Gillian M.
Santos, David
Saxe, Rebecca
Schlegelmilch, Rene
Schmidt, Kathleen
Scholz, Sabine
Seibel, Larissa
Selterman, Dylan Faulkner
Shaki, Samuel
Simpson, William B.
Sinclair, H. Colleen
Skorinko, Jeanine L. M.
Slowik, Agnieszka
Snyder, Joel S.
Soderberg, Courtney
Sonnleitner, Carina
Spencer, Nick
Spies, Jeffrey R.
Steegen, Sara
Stieger, Stefan
Strohminger, Nina
Sullivan, Gavin B.
Talhelm, Thomas
Tapia, Megan
te Dorsthorst, Anniek
Thomae, Manuela
Thomas, Sarah L.
Tio, Pia
Traets, Frits
Tsang, Steve
Tuerlinckx, Francis
Turchan, Paul
Valasek, Milan
van `t Veer, Anna E.
Van Aert, Robbie
van Assen, Marcel
van Bork, Riet
van de Ven, Mathijs
van den Bergh, Don
van der Hulst, Marije
van Dooren, Roel
van Doorn, Johnny
van Renswoude, Daan R.
van Rijn, Hedderik
Vanpaemel, Wolf
Echeverria, Alejandro Vasquez
Vazquez, Melissa
Velez, Natalia
Vermue, Marieke
Verschoor, Mark
Vianello, Michelangelo
Voracek, Martin
Vuu, Gina
Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan
Weerdmeester, Joanneke
Welsh, Ashlee
Westgate, Erin C.
Wissink, Joeri
Wood, Michael
Woods, Andy
Wright, Emily
Wu, Sining
Zeelenberg, Marcel
Zuni, Kellylynn
Open Sci Collaboration
Stichwörter: INCENTIVES; Multidisciplinary Sciences; POWER; PREVALENCE; PUBLICATION; REPLICABILITY; REPLICATION; Science & Technology - Other Topics; TRUTH
Erscheinungsdatum: 2015
Herausgeber: AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE
Journal: SCIENCE
Volumen: 349
Ausgabe: 6251
Zusammenfassung: 
Reproducibility is a defining feature of science, but the extent to which it characterizes current research is unknown. We conducted replications of 100 experimental and correlational studies published in three psychology journals using high-powered designs and original materials when available. Replication effects were half the magnitude of original effects, representing a substantial decline. Ninety-seven percent of original studies had statistically significant results. Thirty-six percent of replications had statistically significant results; 47% of original effect sizes were in the 95% confidence interval of the replication effect size; 39% of effects were subjectively rated to have replicated the original result; and if no bias in original results is assumed, combining original and replication results left 68% with statistically significant effects. Correlational tests suggest that replication success was better predicted by the strength of original evidence than by characteristics of the original and replication teams.
ISSN: 00368075
DOI: 10.1126/science.aac4716

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