Relationships between weather conditions and stoat bags

Autor(en): Nyenhuis, H
Stichwörter: ecological web; Forestry; multiple regression; POPULATION; stoat; time-file of bag; weather
Erscheinungsdatum: 2001
Herausgeber: BLACKWELL WISSENSCHAFTS-VERLAG GMBH
Journal: FORSTWISSENSCHAFTLICHES CENTRALBLATT
Volumen: 120
Ausgabe: 1
Startseite: 24
Seitenende: 37
Zusammenfassung: 
This study investigated the oscillation of a hunting bag time-file of the scent (Mustela erminea L.) in a region of the scare of North-Rhine Westphalia, a place where the number caught reaches highest proportions. From the season 1959/60 to 1998/99 the yearly bag per 1,000 ha was calculated for a hunting area of 260,000 ha. For this stone bag chronology the natural logarithm (In) was determined. This new time-file was correlated with the graphs for the monthly temperature in degreesC, the precipitation in mm and the sunshine hours. The output of 36 PEARSON Produce-Moment correlation coefficients was plotted. The aim of this work was to perform a linear, multiple regression analysis, in which seven weather factors with the most important effects on the In-bag oscillation were extracted. Numerous iterations mere necessary, variables with low significance had to be gradually eliminated. The models multiple R-2 reach to 0.46 with an adjusted R-2 of 0.34. The F-test and the total analysis significance at 0.004 is positive, as well as all other tests for acceptance of models validity. By means of the DURBIN-WATSON test the differences between the residuals of adjacent cases in a sequenced file tested a perfect negative autocorrelation. In the summary table the percentual share standardized regression coefficients (Beta) and t-test values (T) show extensive correspondence. The contributions of Beta show the following: 1. The negative influence of precipitation on the bag curve was estimated at 19.7% for December of the previous year. 2. For January, the effect of sunshine hours shows a negative correlation ac 17.8%. During this month an abundance of sunshine had a positive influence on the red foxes rutting, so that compensatory cross reference is possible. 3. The negative influence of precipitation was calculated at 10.7% for February. 4.-5. The temperature for April has a negative effect at 6.6% on the stoat bags, and the June precipitation has a positive influence at 14.6% on the predator. Obviously the two variables disclose results which require further investigation. Relationships with the development of insects, the main first diet of partridge and pheasant chicks should be taken into consideration. These probably present preferential prey for stoats. 6.-7. Finally, the positive correlation with sunshine hours at 18.1%, and the negative effect at 12.5% of precipitation was estimated for August, when most of the predator and prey populations register a maximum.
ISSN: 00158003
DOI: 10.1007/BF02796078

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