Economic impacts of higher oil and gas prices The role of international trade for Germany

Autor(en): Lutz, Christian
Meyer, Bernd
Stichwörter: Business & Economics; Economics; Energy prices and the macro economy; Global modelling; GROWTH; INFLATION; International trade; MACROECONOMY; MODEL; OECD COUNTRIES; SHOCKS
Erscheinungsdatum: 2009
Volumen: 31
Ausgabe: 6
Startseite: 882
Seitenende: 887
The analysis concentrates on direct and indirect price increases, induced shifts in international trade and structural changes in the oil importing economies. The paper at hand asks, whether a stabilizing effect via international trade and domestic structural change on the GDP of oil importing countries can be observed, if a permanent oil price increase occurs. At least for Germany, structural change from consumer goods to investment goods industry and an improvement of international competitiveness limit negative impacts of increased energy prices. Analysis is based on the extensive and disaggregated global GINFORS model and the detailed INFORGE model for the German economy. (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
ISSN: 01409883
DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2009.05.009

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