CLOSENESS COUNTS IF IT MATTERS FOR ELECTORAL VICTORY - SOME EMPIRICAL RESULTS FOR THE UNITED-KINGDOM AND THE FEDERAL-REPUBLIC-OF-GERMANY

Abstract

It has been argued, that closeness counts not only with respect to the overall decision of a (general) election, but also with respect to the outcome in subelectorates. This proposition is tested using data both from the last German Bundestagswahl as well as the UK General Election in 1987. We find that (expected) closeness counts for turnout on the level of the individual electoral district, but not on any level below, e.g. on the level of precincts. Therefore, closeness seems to count only if it is relevant for electoral victories or defeats.